San Diego-AmeriCANS
Aircraft Carriers Are Accidents Looking for a Place to Happen
This time it was not a battleship. It was a cruise ship, a catastrophic power failure, and an improbable event that only looked predictable after it happened.
Permission to Go Ashore
“It is better to ask for forgiveness than permission to go ashore.”
USS Midway, Carnival Splendor, and the View from the Flight Deck
Permission to Go Ashore
The naval backdrop made the irony impossible to miss.
The Crippled Splendor
A cruise ship became the accident looking for a place to happen.
No Noose Is Good News
The humor survived even when the voyage did not.
Happy Fourth
On the Midway flight deck with the Splendor in the background.
Did You Hear the Story, or the Black Swan Event?
Carnival ships were flagged under Panama. Buying the ticket meant stepping into a legal and consumer environment that did not feel entirely American.
Yet Carnival went into overdrive: three nights at the Hyatt, a flight to Paris, reimbursement for the voyage, and another cruise. The Walmart of cruising lived up to its moniker: pay less and have more fun.
It felt like winning the lottery through catastrophe. This was not an oil spill, a market crash, or September 11. It was still a major failure at sea, followed by a story everyone constructed afterward.
Related field notes: Same Ship, Different Day, Leaving the Splendor, and My Fine Feathered Friend.
Black Swan Logic
Low Predictability
The event arrives because it was not supposed to happen.
High Impact
Its consequences are far larger than the probability assigned to it.
Retrofit Narrative
Afterward, everyone explains why it was obvious all along.
Personal Shock and Awe
Nothing, routine, setback, boredom—and then suddenly the can of whoop-ass arrives.
What You Do Not Know Matters More
Black Swan logic makes what you do not know more relevant than what you do know. The more certain the forecast, the more violent the surprise can feel.
The ship failed. The story survived. The lesson was not to predict every improbable event, but to build enough resilience to make it work when one arrives.